Economy

5-year mortgage charges fell under 6%; The UK lags behind G7 rivals. European shares hit three-month highs – because it occurred | enterprise

UK five-year mounted mortgage charges lastly fell under 6%

The common five-year fixed-mortgage price has fallen under 6% for the primary time because the market was rocked by a disastrous price range two months in the past.

MoneyFacts experiences that the standard five-year mounted deal now prices 5.95% each year, the bottom in seven weeks.

That is down from 6.5% a month in the past, however nonetheless larger than earlier than the Mini Finances, when the common 5-year and 2-year charges have been round 4.75%.

Mortgage charges have been falling since Jeremy Hunt scrapped his predecessor’s QuasiQuarting plans in mid-October. The Financial institution of England has additionally helped by saying that market expectations for a price hike have been too excessive.

Financial institution charges are anticipated to rise above 4.5 p.c subsequent summer season, down from 6 p.c because the pound hits a document low and UK authorities borrowing prices rise.

Two-year mounted mortgage prices have additionally come down. They now common 6.13 p.c, up from 6.65 p.c a month in the past.

Rachel SpringleMoneyfacts.co.uk’s monetary knowledgeable says this autumn might be a aid for these trying to borrow:

“Debtors can breathe a sigh of aid to see that mounted mortgage charges are beginning to fall, however there may very well be a whole lot of room for enchancment. As the common five-year mounted mortgage price fell to six% for the primary time in seven weeks, The underside line is, debtors who’ve put their house possession plans on maintain, and even thought-about refinancing, could also be tempted to take a look at the most recent offers on provide now.

However… charges may fall additional, Sprinkle Consists of:

Actually, it has been practically two months since each common two- and five-year mounted mortgage charges breached 5% (September 30, 2022), however in the present day solely a handful of lenders are providing sub-5% mounted offers.

Debtors could discover they’ve to attend a bit longer earlier than committing to a brand new fixed-rate mortgage, and even wait till subsequent 12 months to see what the present rate of interest uncertainty will imply. How the Market Recovers.”

What is going on with UK mortgage charges? Are they going up or down? https://t.co/xzff45UtDb pic.twitter.com/MpEG4qRikI

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 21, 2022

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Time for a recap…

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Some late energy news…

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The UK’s electricity network operator issued a warning that its buffer of spare capacity will narrow this evening, flagging that the grid is struggling to match demand with enough supply.

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While National Grid said it was confident that power margins would be sufficient, the measure was narrow enough to trigger the automatic alert for 7 p.m. to the market.

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The warning was later canceled but it shows the impact a decline in wind generation will have as temperatures plunge this winter.

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British railway workers will carry out fresh 48-hour strikes in December and January, the RMT trade union have said.

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The latest industrial action have been announced after talks with employers collapsed without reaching a resolution to a long dispute over pay that has already disrupted services for months.

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Back on the drop in mortgage rates (see earlier) Nationwide Building Society announced rate cuts to some of the mortgages it is offering.

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The cuts, of up to 0.3 percentage points, will be made tomorrow.

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The Society said the new rates will include a two-tear tracker rate for people with a 15% deposit, reduced by 0.3 percentage points to 3.94%, with a 999 fee.

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They also include a five-year fixed rate re-mortgage deal for people with a 40% deposit, reduced by 0.26 percentage points to 4.93%, with a 999 fee.

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Henry Jordan, director of mortgages at Nationwide Building Society, said:

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“Continued market stability and the downward trend in swap rates have meant we’ve been able to make further rate reductions on a large number of products across our mortgage range.”

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Q: How does the UK escape its ‘doom loop’ of weak growth?

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The OBR are reluctant to provide policy advice to ministers.

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Professor David Miles says that several shocks have hit the UK since March, including a much higher increase in interest rates than forecast, and the surge in energy costs.

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Miles says UK borrowing costs (measured by bond yields) surged ahead of other advanced Western countries after the mini-budget. They’ve now dropped back in line, but are still much higher than expected in March.

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And market expectations for gas prices in the global market for 2023 are around 80% higher than forecast in March.

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Those are the two reasons why the UK has got ‘a lot poorer’, as Paul Johnson of the IFS warned last week.

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The Treasury committee turns to the OBR’s assumption that fuel duty won’t be frozen next March, and will rise by 23%.

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OBR chief Richard Hughes says the watchdog’s work is based on government policy. Back in March, then-chancellor Rishi Sunak announced a 5p per litre cut to duty, which would be reversed after a year.

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That remained part of the ‘policy assumptions’ which the Treasury gave the OBR to use for this month’s forecasts.

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Lifting fuel duty as planned would add 12p per litre to petrol and diesel.

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If the government doesn’t go ahead, it would cost £6bn, he explains.

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That being said, no chancellor since 2010 has actually gone ahead with the planned indexation of fuel duty, Hughes grins – but many leave the decision until late in the day, becauase it flatters the forecasts.

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Over in parliament, the Treasury committee are questioning top officials from the Office for Budget Responsibility about last week’s autumn statement.

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There’s a live-feed at the top of this blog.

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OBR chair Richard Hughes has been explaining that it’s a ‘good principle’ that fiscal changes produced alongside economic forecasts.

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The fiscal watchdog had been told in early September that Kwasi Kwarteng wouldn’t want a formal forecast for the mini-budget (an omission that contributed to the market panic).

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Q: Why are the OBR’s forecasts so different than the Bank of England’s forecasts?

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Hughes replies that the OBR’s growth projections are more optimistic – showing a shorter UK recession and a recovery to a higher level.

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But he insists the OBR’s view is in line with othe forecastses, while the Bank is ‘a bit of an outlier’ in being so pessimisic.

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The difference is partly due to a different view on whether the savings rate will fall (OBR) or rise (BoE), but also because the OBR drew up its forecasts more recently, so captures falls in energy costs and interest rate probabilities.

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House sales held steady in October in the face of turmoil in the City and Westminster.

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The volume of transactions increased by 2% month-on-month, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, according to HM Revenue and Customs figures.

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An estimated 108,480 sales took place, which was also 38% higher than in October 2021 – when a stamp duty holiday in England and Northern Ireland ended.

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These offers can have been agreed a couple of months earlier, earlier than the mini-budget mayhem.

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So with the financial system weak, and rates of interest because of preserve rising till subsequent summer season, the market could cool.

“,”elementId”:”73fb5555-3d01-490e-8a13-7a4c1d0941dc”},{“_type”:”mannequin.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Lucian Prepare dinner, Savills head of residential analysis, says:

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n

“Gross sales have additionally continued to be supported by folks trying to lock into current mortgage offers, that look low-cost within the context of present rates of interest.

n

Nonetheless, plenty of lead indicators – together with the elevated value of borrowing and rising cost-of-living – are pointing in the direction of falls in transactions over coming months, as consumers and lenders grow to be extra cautious.

n

These numbers additionally proceed to point out the distortive impression of final 12 months’s stamp obligation vacation.

n

We predict transactions volumes will gradual to 870 000 in 2023, with equity-driven prime markets holding up stronger than first-time consumers and mortgaged landlords, who rely extra closely on debt.”

n

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This morning’s UK public finances report shows that the government’s tax take has risen this year.

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    n

  • Income tax, national insurance and capital gains tax receipts for April to October rose by £28.1bn to £235.6bn.

  • n

  • Stamp duty receipts came in at £12.4 billion, up by £2.2bn on last year

  • n

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Helen Morrissey, senior pensions and retirement analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown:

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n

“HMRC’s tax take continues to soar with the amounts of income tax, capital gains, inheritance tax and stamp duty heading skywards as a combination of threshold freezes and strong demand for property continue to play out.

n

The squeeze looks set to continue with these taxes taking centre stage in the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement with income tax and inheritance tax frozen for a further two years and the threshold for additional tax rate payers slashed. Capital gains tax changes will penalise those holding investments outside ISAs and pensions and stamp duty changes may force one last stampede to purchase that dream home before the threshold goes back down in 2025.

n

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n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/resi_analyst/status/1594952611517829120″,”id”:”1594952611517829120″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”345de20f-f2bb-4dc7-9191-6e0a74ca7d55″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1669123637000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”13.27 GMT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1669124162000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”13.36 GMT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1669124162000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”13.36 GMT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”13.36″,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 22 Nov 2022 16.13 GMT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Tue 22 Nov 2022 07.45 GMT”},{“id”:”637cc1bf8f084a383e121716″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

In the City, the UK’s blue-chip FTSE 100 index has reached its highest level since mid-September.

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The Footsie is up 47 points today at 7,424 points, lifted by oil giants BP (+5.8%) and Shell (+3.6%) and smaller producer Harbour Energy (+7)after reports that Opec+ might lift oil production were denied.

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Wholesale gas prices are rising in Europe today, as cold weather lifts demand.

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The UK day-ahead gas price is up almost 6% at 118p per therm, having dropped below 40p in mid-October

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n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1595018997883363329″,”id”:”1595018997883363329″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”b97863bc-679c-41f8-9f07-ef75e334bc09″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1669117311000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”11.41 GMT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1669117465000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”11.44 GMT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1669117465000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”11.44 GMT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”11.44″,”title”:”Fuel costs rise as temperatures fall”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 22 Nov 2022 16.13 GMT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Tue 22 Nov 2022 07.45 GMT”},{“id”:”637cb3168f084a383e121638″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The OECD has criticised the UK’s energy price cap, in its new assessment of Britain’s economy (online here).

“,”elementId”:”ec00c89e-1fda-4423-bc14-c0cbc4d5f768″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

It warns that the ‘untargeted’ pledge will force the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy to tighten more and raising debt service costs, saying:

“,”elementId”:”88d61cf3-95da-4f7d-8d98-39d81cf54259″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

Better targeting of measures to cushion the impact of high energy prices would lower the budgetary cost, better-preserve incentives to save energy, and reduce the pressure on demand at a time of high inflation.

n

“,”elementId”:”a6d29ebd-5b86-4d35-8ee0-d20872d663ef”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

It also fears that a particularly cold winter could risk supply disruptions, exposing the economy to rolling power cuts.

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Further progress in trade deals could also support growth, the OECD adds

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Despite mounting economic gloom, the OECD is urging central banks to keep raising interest rates.

“,”elementId”:”d1ac3fba-ab49-494c-9f50-16a6167ab45f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

It argues that it is important to keep fighting soaring and pervasive inflation, despite the clear slowdown in growth, saying:

“,”elementId”:”436f4bea-a11d-4f37-92c0-e8256c132fbd”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

The higher price of energy has helped trigger increasing prices across a broad basket of goods and services. Tighter monetary policy and decelerating growth will help to eventually moderate inflation.

n

“,”elementId”:”e40cae12-ae6e-4ebe-8475-0070f1a0cc8c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/economics/status/1595003104139038720″,”id”:”1595003104139038720″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”689d66a8-edc9-45c2-b7eb-c6b3ae5d8ae6″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1669113530000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”10.38 GMT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1669113628000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.40 GMT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1669113628000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”10.40 GMT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”10.40″,”title”:”Central banks should preserve mountain climbing charges as financial system slows, OECD says”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 22 Nov 2022 16.13 GMT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Tue 22 Nov 2022 07.45 GMT”},{“id”:”637ca3b08f0888682fb901b0″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Europe will suffer the most from the global slowdown next year, the OECD says, even though the world economy should avoid a recession.

“,”elementId”:”ca8c1438-3cd1-45d7-add3-ce8f961b613a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

World economic growth is set to slow from 3.1% this year to 2.2% next year before accelerating to 2.7% in 2024, today’s new forecasts show.

“,”elementId”:”c81e2e09-3722-4bfb-ac29-9daba00038e3″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

And European countries will bear the brunt of the energy shock, and the disruption to business activity from Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“,”elementId”:”975bdd40-b3d6-4547-8389-8bb1350eac52″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Acting OECD chief economist Alvaro Santos Pereira says:

“,”elementId”:”efa9c16f-48ca-482f-94fb-079339f56c00″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“Our central scenario is not a global recession, but a significant growth slowdown for the world economy in 2023, as well as still high, albeit declining, inflation in many countries.”

n

“,”elementId”:”c9c62054-8662-4e5d-9aa9-170710c55ad8″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/IBTimes/status/1595001193654374400″,”id”:”1595001193654374400″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”e9b22828-5e9b-4b7b-9db6-9544d4ec78c1″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1669112752000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”10.25 GMT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1669112919000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.28 GMT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1669112920000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”10.28 GMT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”10.28″,”title”:”Europe faces hardest hit from international slowdown”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 22 Nov 2022 16.13 GMT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Tue 22 Nov 2022 07.45 GMT”},{“id”:”637ca0668f0801c11e759da4″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The OECD also warns that the global economy is reeling from the Ukraine war, suffering slowing growth and high inflation.

“,”elementId”:”0afb1f6b-c205-4f0e-ab1e-873ee4624e29″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Introducing its latest economic forecasts, the Paris-based organisation says:

“,”elementId”:”af82160c-4530-400e-8482-47ac3ca2f4fa”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

The world economy is paying a high price for Russia’s unprovoked, unjustifiable and illegal war of aggression against Ukraine.

n

With the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic still lingering, the war is dragging down growth and putting additional upward pressure on prices, above all for food and energy. Global GDP stagnated in the second quarter of 2022 and output declined in the G20 economies.

n

High inflation is persisting for longer than expected. In many economies, inflation in the first half of 2022 was at its highest since the 1980s. With recent indicators taking a turn for the worse, the global economic outlook has darkened.

n

“,”elementId”:”9ce08064-1889-4e34-a8a8-bc346bebea82″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1669111910000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”10.11 GMT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1669111995000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.13 GMT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1669111995000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”10.13 GMT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”10.13″,”title”:”OECD: World paying excessive worth for Ukraine battle”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 22 Nov 2022 16.13 GMT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Tue 22 Nov 2022 07.45 GMT”},{“id”:”637c9e098f0888682fb90161″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The UK economy will contract more than any of the world’s other seven most advanced nations next year, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warns.

“,”elementId”:”1e758235-94e9-41e4-ba37-64b8244e6dd7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The OECD has slashed its forecasts for UK growth, as high inflation and worker shortages hit the economy, in its latest economic outlook.

“,”elementId”:”8dbac8da-3728-464d-8bd0-4ab4f0f35fbf”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The UK economy is expected to shrink by 0.4% in 2023 – down from a previous forecast of flatlining – and grow by just 0.2% in 2024.

“,”elementId”:”829e4c1f-d935-4419-ad3a-99188340b97c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Germany is the only other G7 country expected to contract next year, with a 0.3% drop in GDP expected.

“,”elementId”:”c2b2ac73-70d6-43a4-9568-23925b057e0b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Italyis set to grow by 0.2%, with the US expected to expand by 0.5%, France by 0.6%, Canada by 1%, with Japan leading the pack with 1.8%

“,”elementId”:”31c83a49-84fb-441a-9252-e5499e645c39″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1594995724365795337″,”id”:”1594995724365795337″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”53ed98bd-5dd9-4191-8478-7f8fd077cdcf”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The UK is likely to be the second weakest performer of the world’s big economies next year, behind only Russia.

“,”elementId”:”a15bae43-a17d-4260-b1f6-f604cf2bd0de”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Our economic editor Larry Elliott reports:

“,”elementId”:”1aa4d8f8-c501-4f8a-ae7a-1df2d96de26c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

Although most countries have had their growth forecasts cut by the OECD since June, only Russia’s 5.6% contraction is forecast to be more severe than Britain’s. The poor performance is forecast to continue in 2024 with expansion of 0.2% – the joint weakest alongside Russia.

n

The OECD’s acting chief economist, Álvaro Pereira, said he was expecting a less severe downturn next year than the 1.4% decline pencilled in by the Office for Budget Responsibility in last week’s autumn statement, but a more subdued recovery in 2024 than the OBR had pencilled in.

n

Pereira said the OECD thought interest rates would peak at a lower level than the OBR was anticipating, and that the UK would suffer a four-quarter recession ending in the middle of 2023.

n

“,”elementId”:”6c0e5f94-8f1c-44d2-82ac-7953d47dfed1″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/22/uk-growth-oecd-energy-crisis”,”text”:”UK to be second weakest performer of world’s big economies next year – OECD”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”5724eb0d-e755-4a51-8e20-7c861e48d418″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1669111305000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”10.01 GMT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1669112976000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.29 GMT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1669111836000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”10.10 GMT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”10.10″,”title”:”UK to be weakest G7 member subsequent 12 months”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 22 Nov 2022 16.13 GMT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Tue 22 Nov 2022 07.45 GMT”},{“id”:”637c94db8f0888682fb900d3″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The average five-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped below 6% for the first time since the market turmoil created by the disastrous mini-budget two months ago.

“,”elementId”:”4d9c2966-9c0b-496e-b528-c34852c9a2a4″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Moneyfacts reports that the typical five-year fixed deal now costs 5.95% per year, the lowest in seven weeks.

“,”elementId”:”26abfcac-91ea-4c02-a267-ef7543f023b1″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

That’s down 6.5% a month ago, but still higher than before the mini-budget, when average 5-year and 2-year rates were both around 4.75%.

“,”elementId”:”33a5e3ad-4c26-43bc-862c-6d970528574e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/24/number-of-low-deposit-95-mortgages-falls-by-half-since-mini-budget”,”text”:”UK banks pull half of first-time buyer friendly mortgages after mini-budget”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”51cda41f-1482-4303-b9e4-f01691b6ed7d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Mortgage rates have been dropping since Jeremy Hunt tore up his predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng’s plans in mid-October. The Bank of England has also helped, by saying that market expectations of rate rises were too high.

“,”elementId”:”e657dc19-3ec0-4ae2-bf0d-38fba1a59f7b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Bank rates is expected to peak over 4.5% next summer, down from 6% expected when the pound slumped to a record low and UK government borrowing costs spiked.

“,”elementId”:”4157b161-3fdc-42bc-a058-894d9eb1d9c5″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Two-year fixed mortgages costs have also dropped; they now average 6.13%, down from 6.65% a month ago.

“,”elementId”:”3af3d722-6629-4b4f-b1ca-680b854ce3a3″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfacts.co.uk, says this fall will be a relief to those looking to borrow:

“,”elementId”:”38c11445-4741-46c2-910f-2d064667364a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“Borrowers may well breathe a sigh of relief to see that fixed mortgage rates are starting to fall, but there may be much more room for improvement. As the average five-year fixed mortgage rate falls below 6% for the first time in seven weeks, borrowers who paused their home ownership plans, or indeed parked the idea of refinancing, may now be tempted to scrutinise the latest deals on offer.

n

“,”elementId”:”41ab5014-2dd7-4094-a310-bf96fc2f833c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

But… rates could fall further still, Springall adds:

“,”elementId”:”3d263f27-0668-4ab8-9668-ddbedd1a6116″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

Indeed, it’s been around two months since both the average two and five-year fixed mortgage rate breached 5% (30 September 2022), but today only a handful of lenders are offering sub-5% fixed deals.

n

Borrowers may feel they have to be patient for a little while longer yet before they commit to a new fixed mortgage, or even wait until next year to see how the market recovers from the recent interest rate uncertainty.”

n

“,”elementId”:”440837ae-2d80-457a-aae9-933ebd3aee6e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ZSchneeweiss/status/1594741882164510720″,”id”:”1594741882164510720″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”d1ade227-6fb0-4078-a7c4-1948ce2fbdb3″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:true,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1669108955000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”09.22 GMT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1669110069000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”09.41 GMT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1669109719000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”09.35 GMT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”09.35″,”title”:”UK five-year mounted mortgage charges lastly drop under 6%”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 22 Nov 2022 16.13 GMT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Tue 22 Nov 2022 07.45 GMT”},{“id”:”637c89b88f08bda03cae1a8b”,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The oil price, and shares in oil companies, are both rebounding today after Saudi Arabia denied it was discussing an increase in Opec production.

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Brent crude has gained 1.5% to $88.80 per barrel this morning, having slumped by $5 per barrel to around $83/barrel yesterday to a 10-month low.

“,”elementId”:”7259b413-ec48-4cb4-a725-6505038fbd75″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/nov/21/cbi-uk-economy-growth-jeremy-hunt-ftse-oil-covid-business-live”,”text”:”Oil plunges to 10-month low as Saudi Arabia ‘considers Opec+ production increase’ – as it happened”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”89a84d5b-91a0-47a2-8bbd-5c212c5ad92b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

BP’s shares have jumped over 5%, followed by North Sea producer Harbour Energy (+4.7%) and Shell (+3.2%).

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They fell on Monday, after reports that Opec and its allies could increase output by 500,000 per day.

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It’s been a dramatic time in the oil market, as Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, says:

“,”elementId”:”4f125370-9c1d-4197-8c5b-2744a6bce563″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

Saudi Arabia’s denial of the output increase contributed to a 12% round-trip in front-month Brent prices over the past 24 hours.

n

It is possible that the suggestions to expand Opec+ production were floated to gauge the price reaction. The initial negative follow-through implies that demand concerns warrant a relatively modest increase in output if Opec+ is looking to stabilize prices once the EU embargo kicks in.

n

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n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/AEHarshada/status/1594867308467453965″,”id”:”1594867308467453965″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”4864d6c2-f015-4f23-bb53-0858430ebf3a”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1669106104000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”08.35 GMT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1669106703000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”08.45 GMT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1669106703000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”08.45 GMT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”08.45″,”title”:”Oil shares bounce after Opec manufacturing enhance denial”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 22 Nov 2022 16.13 GMT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Tue 22 Nov 2022 07.45 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There are fears of money shortages within the run-up to Christmas, after greater than 1,000 safety employees who ship money and cash to among the UK’s greatest banks and supermarkets voted to strike in December.

“,”elementId”:”d590a6bb-4744-4077-ad45-5126add8326d”},{“_type”:”mannequin.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

The strike by 1,200 members of the GMB union who work for the safety firm G4S is because of happen from 3am on 5 December, after 97% of employees voted for industrial motion in a row over pay.

n

G4S Money Options purchasers embody Barclays, Lloyds and HSBC in addition to retailers together with Tesco, Asda, Aldi, Morrisons and Boots, and the pub chains Wetherspoon’s and Greene King.

n

G4S Money, a part of Allied Worldwide, initially provided members a part-pay freeze, after which proposed a 4.5% pay rise and a lump-sum bonus based mostly on contracted hours, the GMB mentioned.

n

“,”elementId”:”b4b8c0fe-6467-4b1f-91eb-bd432ee907c7″},{“_type”:”mannequin.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/enterprise/2022/nov/22/g4s-strike-cash-barclays-asda-tesco”,”textual content”:”G4S strike prompts fears of festive money shortages at banks and outlets”,”prefix”:”Associated: “,”position”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”6bfbe6db-a4da-412d-bcd6-0ffa80fa2657″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1669105100000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”08.18 GMT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1669113348000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.35 GMT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1669105228000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”08.20 GMT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”08.20″,”title”:”G4S strike prompts fears of festive money shortages at banks and outlets”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Julia Kollewe”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/contributor/2014/10/15/1413385261859/Julia-Kollewe.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=1fd976c7e16b5325a5b81f24809000f7″,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Julia-Kollewe,-L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=23f212ea863acfa1e5744c02a3c246fd”}],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 22 Nov 2022 16.13 GMT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Tue 22 Nov 2022 07.45 GMT”},{“id”:”637c7fbc8f08b0d3de4551ba”,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Here’s chancellor of the exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, on October’s jump in borrowing:

“,”elementId”:”6d24ee56-01ab-4dfd-9eec-8a4b8c6a0177″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“It is right that the government increased borrowing to support millions of business and families throughout the pandemic, and the aftershocks of Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.

“But to tackle inflation and ensure the economic stability needed for long-term growth, it is vital that we put the public finances back on a more sustainable path.

“There is no easy path to balancing the nation’s books, but we have taken the necessary decisions to get debt falling while actively taking steps to protect jobs, public services and the most vulnerable.”

n

“,”elementId”:”55feb670-0ee8-45e3-b14a-1161301d3e89″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1669103548000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”07.52 GMT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1669103671000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”07.54 GMT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1669103671000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”07.54 GMT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”07.54″,”title”:”Hunt: It is proper to borrow to assist agency and households”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 22 Nov 2022 16.13 GMT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Tue 22 Nov 2022 07.45 GMT”},{“id”:”637c67b98f08fcbbeda2b6b8″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

“,”elementId”:”b2413ad7-5818-4463-8673-325d8736cf81″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

UK government borrowing jumped last month, lifted by support with household energy bills, and soaring inflation which drove up interest payments.

“,”elementId”:”ffb623f1-0e7f-4441-a02e-09568839f698″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Britain’s public sector net borrowing came in at £13.5bn in October, more than £4bn more than the £9.2bn which was borrowed in October 2021 to balance the books.

“,”elementId”:”f25ae965-c9cb-4345-8fa5-3fea41e29734″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

It’s the fourth highest October borrowing since monthly records began in 1993.

“,”elementId”:”75102abd-dc5f-4774-a347-35fb4cfbd352″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1594949192698454017″,”id”:”1594949192698454017″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”f1396f87-a67e-49c3-95a8-1ff8ba60c4be”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Government spending was lifted by £1.9bn by the cost of helping households with energy bills. That £400 payment is being paid in six monthly installments, starting in October.

“,”elementId”:”0a6da6dc-34d9-4dae-894b-67820e84b152″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Former PM Liz Truss’s pledge to cap household bills at an average of £2,500 per year also added over £1bn to government spending.

“,”elementId”:”177f0834-de33-4386-b0e1-00ccd96d235f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Michal Stelmach, senior economist at KPMG UK, says:

“,”elementId”:”533a5d96-6d6e-4906-a8b2-d61a8e1f3902″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“The public finances continue to face a tug of war between demand for energy support and the overarching need to balance the books.

n

As things stand, the headroom against meeting the new fiscal targets is hanging by a thread, and we expect that they could easily be missed thanks to a less favourable economic outlook compared to the OBR’s forecast.”

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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who outlined a £55bn package of spending cuts and tax increases last week, has warned that “There is no easy path to balancing the nation’s books” (more from the chancellor shortly).

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Hunt also announced more support for energy bills last week, beyond April, which will push borrowing higher still.

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October’s borrowing figure was actually lower than City economists expected.

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But the UK spent £6.1bn on interest payments on the national debt. Over half that bill (£3.3bn) was due to the surge in the retail price index, which sets the interest payment on index-linked gilts.

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Last week, the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted that the national debt will peak at almost 100% of national output in three years, driven up by higher debt interest, inflation-linked welfare spending, and a weaker economy.

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Also coming up today

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Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is to tell business leaders at Britain’s ‘immigration dependency’ must end.

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Bosses have been pushing Westminster to use immigration to solve worker shortages and boost economic growth. But the Labour leader will tell the CBI conference this morning that UK businesses must wean themselves off “cheap labour” and that a low-pay model for growth is no longer working for the British people.

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My colleague Jessica Elgot reports:

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The Labour leader is expected to say to the Confederation of British Industry conference that his party will be “pragmatic” about the shortage of workers and not ignore the need for skilled migrants – but stressed that any changes “will come with new conditions for business”.

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Starmer will say Labour expects to keep a points-based immigration system and to train up more workers, especially in high-skilled jobs and the NHS. But he stopped short of pledging that overall migration should come down – a promise that Rishi Sunak renewed last week.

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Energy regulator Ofgem is warning that suppliers have been failing vulnerable customers, as people face a cold and costly winter, with 5 particularly weak.

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For example, some suppliers are setting debt repayments so high that customers felt they couldn’t top-up their pre-payment meters.

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The OECD is publishing its twice-yearly analysis of the major global economic trends and prospects for the next two year. It’ll show how advanced economies, including the UK, are expected to fare….

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And the Treasury committee will question top officials from the Office for National Statistics, about last week’s autumn statement

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The agenda

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  • 7am GMT: UK public finances for October

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  • 10am GMT: OECD publishes its economic outlook

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  • 2.15pm GMT: Treasury committee hearing on the autumn statement, with the OBR

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  • 3pm GMT: Eurozone consumer confidence estimate for November

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Necessary occasions

Closing submit

Time to resume…

Nationwide Grid has issued an influence provide alert as wind manufacturing declines.

Late power information…

Britain’s electrical energy community operator has issued a warning that its spare capability buffer might be depleted this night, indicating the grid is struggling to match demand with enough provide. .

Whereas Nationwide Grid mentioned it was assured energy margins can be enough, the size was tight sufficient to set off an automated market alert for 7 p.m.

The warning was later rescinded however reveals the impression of decreased wind manufacturing as temperatures drop this winter.

GB : Capability Mechanism Discover Issued for 19:00 this night. Unlikely to grow to be true as NG ESO will use interconnector buying and selling to extend imports this night over the approaching hours ^PH pic.twitter.com/AX8sOFmJxh

— EnAppSys (@enappsys) November 22, 2022

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GB: Capability process discover issued for 19:00 in the present day. Unlikely to be true as NG ESO will use interconnector buying and selling to spice up imports this night in coming hours ^PH pic.twitter.com/AX8sOFmJxh

— EnAppSys (@enappsys) November 22, 2022

UK rail employees are planning additional strikes in December and January.

The RMT commerce union has mentioned British rail employees will stage contemporary 48-hour strikes in December and January.

The most recent industrial motion was introduced after talks with employers ended with no decision to a protracted dispute over pay that has already affected companies for months.

NEW:

– RMT pronounces one other *eight* days of rail strikes earlier than and after Christmas:

– contemporary strike motion on December 13, 14, 16 & 17 in addition to January 3, 4, 6 & 7

— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) November 22, 2022

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new:

– RMT pronounces *eight* extra days of rail strikes earlier than and after Christmas:

– Recent strikes on 13, 14, 16 and 17 December in addition to 3, 4, 6 and seven January.

— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) November 22, 2022

One other key level of the Treasury Committee listening to:

Andy King explains why debt curiosity prices have risen.

The rise in rates of interest since March signifies that the price of servicing that debt doubles in money phrases to over £100bn and jumps as a % of presidency income from beneath 5% pre-pandemic to eight.5% by 2027-28.#AutumnStatement pic.twitter.com/HC58xQEZCm

— Workplace for Finances Duty (@OBR_UK) November 22, 2022

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/OBR_UK/standing/1595080625286955008″,”id”:”1595080625286955008″,”hasMedia”:false,”position”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”supply”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”78b171f8-551e-4d0d-ad77-2b8755f066b8″}}”>

Andy King explains why debt curiosity prices have soared.

An increase in rates of interest from March means the price of debt servicing doubles to greater than £100bn in money phrases and as a % of presidency income by 2027-28 from 5% to eight.5% earlier than the pandemic. Will increase to %.#Autumn statement pic.twitter.com/HC58xQEZCm

— Workplace for Finances Duty (@OBR_UK) November 22, 2022

Here is a neat chart displaying how the UK will lag behind the opposite G20 nations, excluding closely sanctioned Russia, subsequent 12 months:

OECD Development Forecast

European inventory markets hit three-month highs this afternoon, as power shares continued to rally.

The Stoxx 600 index is up 0.8%, not seen since August.

Mounted-rate mortgage cuts throughout the nation

Again to mortgage price cuts (see earlier) Nationwide Constructing Society has introduced a discount in among the mortgage charges it provides.

Deductions of as much as 0.3 proportion factors might be made in complete.

The society mentioned the brand new charges would come with two tear tracker charges for these with a 15% deposit, with the 999 price down 0.3 proportion factors to three.94%.

These embody a five-year fixed-rate remortgage deal for folks with a 40% deposit, with the 999 price down 0.26 proportion factors to 4.93%.

Henry JordanDirector of mortgages Throughout the nation The constructing Societymentioned:

“Continued market stability and alternate price reductions have meant that we’ve been in a position to additional scale back charges on numerous merchandise throughout our mortgage vary.”

David Miles explains the impression of upper international power and meals costs on our financial forecasts. They’re anticipated to push inflation as much as 11% this 12 months, however inflation would have peaked 2½ ppts larger with out the Authorities’s power worth assure.#AutumnStatement pic.twitter.com/i73JuJRvRA

— Workplace for Finances Duty (@OBR_UK) November 22, 2022

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David Miles explains the impression of excessive international power and meals costs on our financial forecasts. They’re anticipated to raise inflation to 11% this 12 months, however with out the federal government’s power worth assure inflation can be 2½ ppts larger.#Autumn statement pic.twitter.com/i73JuJRvRA

— Workplace for Finances Duty (@OBR_UK) November 22, 2022

OBR chief Richard Hughes has identified that rising financial inactivity, with extra folks leaving the labor power, has additionally left the UK financial system in a susceptible place.

The explanations are complicated, he says, however embody a mixture of early retirement, and elevated sick well being after the pandemic.

OBR: Borrowing charges and power prices are making Britain poorer.

Q: How does the UK keep away from its ‘doom loop’ of weak development?

OBR is reluctant to offer coverage recommendation to ministers.

Professor David Miles It says the UK has been hit by plenty of shocks since March, together with a bigger-than-expected rise in rates of interest, and rising power costs.

Miles says that Britain’s borrowing prices (measured by bond yields) rose above these of different superior Western nations after the mini-budget. They’re again in line now, however far more than anticipated in March.

And market expectations for international fuel costs for 2023 are about 80% larger than forecast in March.

These are the 2 causes Britain has grow to be ‘very poor’, as Paul Johnson of the IFS warned final week.

OBR has instructed the Treasury choose committee the Treasury instructed them they have been effective to issue within the 23% gas obligation improve in April into their forecast

That is at odds with what ministers have been saying, who mentioned it was the OBR assuming the rise would go forward – not them…

— Nadine Batchelor-Hunt (@nadinebh_) November 22, 2022

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The OBR has instructed the Treasury Choose Committee that the Treasury instructed them they have been proper to consider a 23% improve in gas obligation in April of their forecast.

This contradicts what ministers have been saying, who mentioned the OBR is assuming the rise will go forward – it would not…

— Nadine Bachelor Hunt (@nadinebh_) November 22, 2022

OBR: “Our forecast is predicated on govt coverage which was introduced again in March… it was a coverage as confirmed by the Treasury once they gave us the coverage assumptions to make use of after we produced [the report] this month…”

— Nadine Batchelor-Hunt (@nadinebh_) November 22, 2022

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/nadinebh_/standing/1595072990185951232″,”id”:”1595072990185951232″,”hasMedia”:false,”position”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”supply”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”be6e2495-7216-4674-9d3d-3fdb48682b3b”}}”>

OBR: “Our forecast is predicated on the federal government’s coverage that was introduced in March… it was a coverage that the Treasury confirmed once they gave us the coverage assumptions that we used will use [the report] This month…”

— Nadine Bachelor Hunt (@nadinebh_) November 22, 2022

OBR: Not rising gas obligation would value £6bn.

The Treasury Committee referred to the OBR’s assumption that gas obligation wouldn’t be frozen subsequent March, and would rise by 23%.

OBR chief Richard Hughes says the watchdog’s work is predicated on authorities coverage. In March, the then chancellor Rishi Singh introduced a 5p per liter minimize in obligation, which might be withdrawn after a 12 months.

This remained a part of the ‘coverage assumptions’ that the Treasury gave the OBR to make use of for this month’s forecasts.

The deliberate gas obligation hike will improve petrol and diesel costs by 12p per litre.

He factors out that it’ll value £6bn if the federal government doesn’t transfer ahead.

That being mentioned, no chancellor has pushed forward with deliberate indexation of gas obligation since 2010, Hughes smiles – however many go away that call to later within the day, because it flatters forecasts. does.

Q: Did you inform Liz Truss and Kwasi Quarting how harmful it could be for the OBR to not forecast?

OBR chief Richard Hughes says there have been no discussions with the Chancellor or the Prime Minister earlier than September 23 (Mini Finances Day).

Query: Do we’d like a greater definition of a monetary occasion?

Hughes agrees that there have been 5 fiscal occasions since March (together with final week’s autumn assertion, which got here with the OBR forecast).

Good follow, as outlined by anybody… would say that you shouldn’t make monetary choices with out an up to date financial outlook.

On the Authorities’s new guidelines, Richard Hughes explains that they’re met by margins which are small relative to March and to the dangers round this forecast.#AutumnStatement pic.twitter.com/KM91plyh7z

— Workplace for Finances Duty (@OBR_UK) November 22, 2022

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OBR chief Richard Hughes instructed MPs that enterprise funding within the UK has been ‘fairly disappointing’ for a while.

Dealing with a consumption-driven recession, it is exhausting to see many corporations elevating capital – particularly when rising rates of interest make borrowing dearer.

Member of OBR Committee David Mail It has weight, suggesting that individuals will possible dip into their financial savings as family incomes are hit by the recession (somewhat than slicing again and saving extra).

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